Outstanding analysis. Your diagnostic precision is the best I've seen on this conflict. Timestamped predictions with probabilities — that's how intelligence briefings should read.
But your briefings end where my framework begins.
Everything you're describing — island seizure, blockade, carrier groups, mine clearance — all of it becomes unnecessary when you ask one question nobody in Washington is asking: why are we still there?
Mackinder answered that question in 1904. Land routes bypass sea lanes. A pipeline from the Gulf to the Mediterranean removes Iran's leverage permanently. No carriers. No mine clearance. No island occupation. Infrastructure that creates jobs instead of casualties.
But the pipeline is only one piece. America doesn't need the petrodollar if America stops borrowing. America doesn't need Hormuz if America builds the Western Hemisphere energy bloc. The grand strategy — a seven-prong tariff framework that replaces military dominance with economic aspiration — is here: theplummer.substack.com/p/the-high-value-nation
I have a forthcoming article called 'The Judo Move' that ties all three together — why the smartest thing America can do in the Middle East is leave. Coming soon.
Your diagnosis is the map. My framework is the exit. I think our work is complementary.
This is yet another article I downloaded (in two parts) to read at leisure. Some facts I was unable to understand, hence the re-read. As a veterinarian, these human procedures, this ping-pong game, and this president going back and forth with his sayings are at times difficult to grasp. Thank you for such a detailed work.
Outstanding analysis. Your diagnostic precision is the best I've seen on this conflict. Timestamped predictions with probabilities — that's how intelligence briefings should read.
But your briefings end where my framework begins.
Everything you're describing — island seizure, blockade, carrier groups, mine clearance — all of it becomes unnecessary when you ask one question nobody in Washington is asking: why are we still there?
Mackinder answered that question in 1904. Land routes bypass sea lanes. A pipeline from the Gulf to the Mediterranean removes Iran's leverage permanently. No carriers. No mine clearance. No island occupation. Infrastructure that creates jobs instead of casualties.
I've written about why Churchill fought for sea lanes Mackinder told him were already obsolete — and why America is repeating his mistake: theplummer.substack.com/p/why-churchill-couldnt-make-peace
And the pipeline that removes Iran's power entirely: theplummer.substack.com/p/the-pipe-that-removes-Iran's-power
But the pipeline is only one piece. America doesn't need the petrodollar if America stops borrowing. America doesn't need Hormuz if America builds the Western Hemisphere energy bloc. The grand strategy — a seven-prong tariff framework that replaces military dominance with economic aspiration — is here: theplummer.substack.com/p/the-high-value-nation
I have a forthcoming article called 'The Judo Move' that ties all three together — why the smartest thing America can do in the Middle East is leave. Coming soon.
Your diagnosis is the map. My framework is the exit. I think our work is complementary.
https://brandonbedard.substack.com/p/the-imperial-bug-why-the-us-god-mode?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=7qos2e
This is yet another article I downloaded (in two parts) to read at leisure. Some facts I was unable to understand, hence the re-read. As a veterinarian, these human procedures, this ping-pong game, and this president going back and forth with his sayings are at times difficult to grasp. Thank you for such a detailed work.